Lab Notebook

Records only.

24 Aug 2026A result we could not explain, and what we did with itA number without a mechanism is not a finding.Records21 Aug 2026We stopped saving cash for dipsWaiting for a dip paid half a per cent less per coin and bought far fewer of them.Records18 Aug 2026Who writes this column, and whenThe dashboard was wrong by 4.6% and nothing was broken.Records14 Aug 2026Three failures that would have passed without a soundRemoving a feature does not remove the assumptions built on it.Records11 Aug 2026Position size: measured, not interpolatedWe had been sizing by judgement. So we measured it instead.Records01 Aug 2026We closed the bitcoin legThe same strategy on a second asset did not survive the same audit.Records29 Jul 2026The correction we predicted backwardsWe knew both facts and reasoned from the easier one.Records29 Jul 2026Eleven mistakes in one day, none of them arithmeticEvery number computed correctly, every conclusion wrong.Records29 Jul 202638.6 years of somebody else's historyOur nine years are our own data. So we went looking for someone else's.Records29 Jul 2026Where the value in the trade actually sitsWe split nine years into stages to see which part earns.Records28 Jul 2026How long it takes to notice a strategy has diedWe asked how long the edge could be gone before we could tell.Records28 Jul 2026We tried to break the strategy with a price stopWe swept every stop level we could justify. The best one never fires.Records28 Jul 2026We paid for our own searchWe tested every configuration our parameters allow, not the one we liked.Records20 Jul 2026We stopped reading candles at entryWe hunted exhaustion patterns for a year. Measured, it had stopped mattering.Records19 Jul 2026We removed averaging downFor a year we scaled into losers and called it conviction.Records02 Jul 2026The position that sat still for 284 daysOur worst historical case of getting stuck, and what it actually cost.Records